For every name in the country we converted its annual registrations into a share of that year's births, measured how the share has drifted over the last three years, applied that drift once more - damped, because trends slow down more often than they speed up - and re-ranked the lot. No focus groups, no vibes, just the registration data doing what it was always going to do next. The baby counts are approximate; the rankings are the prediction.

Start at the top: Olivia makes it ten years in a row at number one, and the maths isn't even nervous about it. The real movement is just below. Bonnie is our boldest high-end call - sixth place gained, into the top ten for the first time in her entire recorded history. Bonnie has never appeared in any published top 100 before the modern era; from a standing start to the top table in a generation.

At the other end, a small piece of history. Jessica - third in 1994, number one as recently as 2005 - has not been outside a published top 100 since 1984. We predict that run ends this year, with Jessica and Amélie making way for Frankie and Francesca. Yes, both newcomers are the same name in different outfits.

The vintage wave we wrote about in Britain's most endangered names rolls on: Ivy and Elsie sit in the top ten, Mabel, Ada, Olive and Nellie all climb, and the biggest risers further down - Ottilie up ten, Hazel up twelve, Ophelia up nine, Raya up sixteen - are a pressed-flower arrangement with one Disney heroine in it. Falling hardest: Imogen, Eleanor, Eliza and Chloe, all shedding five to seven places.

The headline is that there is no headline. We predict not a single name enters or leaves the boys' top 100 - the same hundred names, lightly reshuffled. We found the same thing in the endangered list: boys' names simply turn over more slowly, in both directions. Muhammad takes a third straight year at number one, and not narrowly - our forecast has him six thousand babies clear of Noah.

The one change that matters is at the velvet rope: Jude climbs three into the top ten and Archie slips out to make room. Below that, Oakley is the big riser (up nine to 25th), Sonny jumps seven, and Yusuf, Musa, Yahya and Enzo all climb strongly. Heading the other way: Mason, Jaxon, Zachary, Toby and Grayson - the great American import cohort of the 2010s, cooling as one.

Momentum is blind to 2025 itself, so here's where we go on the record against our own model. The Oasis reunion: Liam is already climbing three places on pure momentum - we say the tour adds more, and we'll even watch for a flicker of Noel, a name currently heading the way of Nigel. Wednesday's second series should keep lifting Wednesday and Enid, neither of which the model has anywhere near the chart. The Lionesses retained the Euros, and the model has no idea: it doesn't have Alessia entering the top 100 - if she crashes in anyway, culture beats maths and we'll say so. And Pope Leo XIV poses the best question of the lot: Leo was already fifth before the conclave - can a papacy move a name that's nearly run out of headroom?

When the official figures land we'll publish the scorecard - every call above, graded, including the ones that go wrong. In the meantime, every name in both tables links to its full popularity history: a century of charts, how many bearers are alive today, and the odds of meeting one in a room of a hundred. Look yours up and see whether the maths has plans for it.